EU-FMD Key-note: Cross-validation of generic risk assessment tools: an ASF case-study
Emma Snary, Head of Epidemiological Sciences at the APHA, gave a key-note presentation at the recent EU-FMD Open Session 2020 on ‘Cross-validation of generic risk-assessment tools: and ASF case-study’. She talked about a collaborative project called GRAID “Generic approaches for Risk Assessment of Infectious animal Disease introduction”, led by Wageningen University & Research, which provided an opportunity for the cross validation of generic risk tools developed within Europe. Seven generic RA tools were used to assess the incursion risk of African swine fever (ASF) virus to the Netherlands and Finland using, where possible, the same data and model parameters. Due to differences in the endpoints and outputs of the tools, the relative risks were compared. It was concluded that the relative risk of ASF virus incursion were similar across the generic RA tools and that the cross-validation contributed to the credibility of the results.
